With a more deserving set of
best picture nominees than we’ve seen in recent years, this year’s awards
season has also been more exciting, even though the four acting wins are extremely
predictable this year. Here’s look at who should win and will win in the eight main
categories, and other predictions for this Sunday’s 92nd Academy Awards
SHOULD
WIN, WILL WIN
Best
Motion Picture
Ford
v Ferrari
The
Irishman
Jojo
Rabbit
Joker
Little
Women
Marriage
Story
1917
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Should win: After last year’s
nominees for best picture—wherein just three films really evoked strong
emotions, excitement or awe—this year’s best picture nominees offer a lot more.
From the absolutely endearing Jojo Rabbit,
to the heartbreaking Marriage Story;
from the exciting Once Upon A Time…In
Hollywood to the awesome Joker—most of these films are as admirable as best
picture nominees ought to be. Parasite
was baffling and thrilling with its seamless marrying of genres, giving us an
excellent amalgamation of engaging comedy and thriller. And it comes close to
deserving best picture. However, I have to say that it’s still not as impactful
as 1917, if one had to draw a comparison,
which is what awards are about. The World War I film was technically superior,
visually spectacular, an edge-of-the-seat experience from beginning to end, all
the while striking a strong emotional chord with its portrayal of humanness in
times of war. It’s certainly a cut above the rest, and it should be this year’s
big winner.
Will win: It’s quite possible that
Parasite will make history, becoming
the first ‘foreign language film’ to win the Oscar for best picture. However,
that seemed more likely a few weeks ago, and as the awards season has unfolded,
it’s become apparent that 1917 has
more steam to get all the way to the finish line at the grand finale of this
compressed awards season. With its Golden Globes for best picture and director,
and big wins at the directors’ and producers’ guild awards, as well as a sweep
at last week’s BAFTAs, it seems more likely now than ever that 1917 will be named best picture on
Sunday. And I can’t think of any other picture more deserving.
Achievement
In Directing
The
Irishman | Martin
Scorsese
Joker | Todd Phillips
1917 | Sam Mendes
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Quentin Tarantino
Parasite | Bong Joon Ho
Should win: Sam Mendes, for
sure… I think 1917 was a masterpiece,
with scale and pace and a coming together of numerous technical aspects,
without which the impact would not have been the same. To effectively steer
that ship and achieve those results, the captain deserves it.
Will win: Sam Mendes will win,
even though Bong Joon Ho might pose an upset. I’d be very surprised if anyone
other than these two take it away—even Tarantino.
Performance
By An Actress In A Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan in Little Women
Charlize Theron in Bombshell
Renée Zellweger in Judy
Should win: Renée Zellweger,
who was excellent as she portrayed the desperate, fading stardom of Judy
Garland. She brought out insecurity, irrationality and entitlement with every
twitch, every pout, and every outrageous move. Her performance was
heartbreaking and delightful—all at once.
Will win: At the Golden
Globes, Zellweger made note of the number of years it’s been since she was
present last at the awards scene. This nomination comes after her supporting
actress Oscar win in 2004, for Cold
Mountain. Sixteen years later, she will win her second Oscar at this year’s
Academy Awards. Quite a comeback indeed!
Performance
By An Actor In A Leading Role
Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver in Marriage Story
Joaquin
Phoenix in Joker
Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes
Should win: Although I think
Leonardo DiCaprio and Adam Driver were exquisite in their roles, this one
belongs to Joaquin Phoenix. He’s kind of made a comeback to the awards scene this
year, quite like Ms. Zellweger, and what a comeback it has been. He portrayed
the devious, devastating and diabolical Joker with such compelling conviction,
that it’s hard to pick any other performance as the best.
Will win: This is Phoenix’s
year. And his win will be absolutely deserving.
Performance
By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell
Laura
Dern in Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh in Little Women
Margot Robbie in Bombshell
Should win: Margot Robbie, who
delivered with devastating restraint, as she portrayed inner conflict and the gut-wrenching
feeling of being violated, in Bombshell.
Even Scarlett Johansson was terrifically delightful in Jojo Rabbit, but Robbie’s performance demanded more nuance, and she
delivered.
Will win: Laura Dern seems to
be this season’s frontrunner here, and I do believe she was good, even though I
don’t think she was the best among the above performances. And I know that the
Oscars aren’t about quantity. Yet, her win will be for just that one monologue
about Mary and god. I’d be surprised if they play any other clip of hers when
these nominees are being announced.
Performance
By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes
Al Pacino in The Irishman
Joe Pesci in The Irishman
Brad Pitt in Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Should win: I think it should
be Al Pacino for The Irishman. I do
believe The Irishman was a let-down,
but Pacino’s performance was not.
Will win: He was cool,
laidback, and effortless, like Brad Pitt. I think Pitt was basically playing
himself in Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood.
That’s why I believe there is such honesty in his performance. It might not be
his career’s best performance, but it sure as hell will be cool to see him win
for a role where he did, I’ll admit, kick ass, even literally!
Adapted
Screenplay
The
Irishman | Screenplay
by Steven Zaillian
Jojo
Rabbit | Screenplay
by Taika Waititi
Joker | Written by Todd Phillips &
Scott Silver
Little
Women | Written for
the screen by Greta Gerwig
The
Two Popes | Written by
Anthony McCarten
Should win: Little Women comes close here. I think the non-linear narrative in retelling this classic, and unfolding details from the past and present when they're emotionally in-sync worked really well, along with the modern-inspired character tweaks. However, Jojo Rabbit was near perfection. I believe Jojo Rabbit delivered
in heaps with its heartwarming and heartbreaking story and characters, and its sincerity
and hilarity, especially given the complicated setting, and historical
relevance. It was an exceptional piece of writing—a complete departure from the
anything else we’ve seen in a long time.
Will win: I think Jojo Rabbit will win here, even if it’s
the only Oscar it wins. Though I still won't be surprised if Little Women takes it away.
Original
Screenplay
Knives
Out | Written by
Rian Johnson
Marriage
Story | Written by
Noah Baumbach
1917 | Written by Sam Mendes &
Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Written by Quentin Tarantino
Parasite
| Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho
Should win: Marriage Story’s biggest strength is its
writing, and if that had been lacking in any way, even terrific performances from
the cast wouldn’t be able to do such wonders for the film. Yet, Parasite was a phenomenal piece of art,
as it married genres with finesse, and presented such disturbing, and hilarious
facets of the human condition. Hence, I believe it should win.
Will win: Parasite might not win best picture, but it will win an Oscar for
its screenplay. Once Upon a Time…In
Hollywood could come close.
OTHER
PREDICTIONS
Achievement
In Cinematography
The
Irishman | Rodrigo
Prieto
Joker | Lawrence Sher
The
Lighthouse | Jarin
Blaschke
1917
| Roger Deakins
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Robert Richardson
If anyone other than Roger
Deakins wins this, it’ll be quite surprising.
Achievement
In Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
| Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland
The
Irishman | Thelma
Schoonmaker
Jojo
Rabbit | Tom Eagles
Joker | Jeff Groth
Parasite | Yang Jinmo
Don’t be surprised if Parasite wins this, especially because of
the thrilling last 30 minutes of the film. However, I think this is the one
category where Ford v Ferrari is a
strong contender, and it will turn out to be its solo Oscar win.
Achievement
In Costume Design
The
Irishman | Sandy Powell
and Christopher Peterson
Jojo
Rabbit | Mayes C.
Rubeo
Joker | Mark Bridges
Little Women
| Jacqueline Durran
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood |
Arianne Phillips
The
Irishman is a strong
contender here, but I think the Academy’s love for older period pieces will make
Little Women win this one.
Achievement
In Makeup And Hairstyling
Bombshell
| Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
Joker | Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy | Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent:
Mistress of Evil
| Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
1917 | Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and
Rebecca Cole
I believe Joker stands a good
chance at this. However, in recent years, the Academy has leaned in the favor
of makeup and hairstyling that has had a significant impact on the re-creation
of true-life personalities, and this year, we have two films here that do just
that. So I believe it’ll be between Bombshell
and Judy. And I believe the former
will win, given the conversation that it has generated surrounding the portrayal
of Megyn Kelly, even beyond Charlize Theron’s fantastic performance.
Achievement
In Music Written For Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Joker
| Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little
Women | Alexandre
Desplat
Marriage
Story | Randy Newman
1917 | Thomas Newman
Star
Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
| John Williams
Again, one of the more predictable
categories this year, this one is going to Joker.
Though I would give it to 1917’s
exceptional soundtrack that maintained the thrilling tone of the film
throughout, and especially with the minimal dialogue it had.
Achievement
In Music Written For Motion Pictures (Original Song)
‘I can't let you throw
yourself away’ from Toy Story 4 |
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
‘(I'm
Gonna) Love Me Again’ from Rocketman
| Music by Elton John; Lyric by Bernie Taupin
‘I'm standing with you’ from Breakthrough | Music and Lyric by Diane
Warren
‘Into the unknown’ from Frozen II | Music and Lyric by Kristen
Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
‘Stand up’ from Harriet | Music and Lyric by Joshuah
Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Stand
up’ wins this. It could be the surprise winner of the evening. Yet, I do
believe that this category belongs to Sir Elton John and his biopic this year.
Achievement
In Production Design
The
Irishman | Production
Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
Jojo
Rabbit | Production
Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917
| Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Parasite | Production Design: Lee Ha Jun;
Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo
This is a tough one. In my
opinion, 1917 is the clear winner.
However, Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
and The Irishman stand a good chance.
Between these two, the former is a stronger contender though. Yet, I think the
Acacemy will go the 1917 way—not only
because of the exemplary achievement in itself, but in a big way because of how
important the environ is in the seemingly impossible journey that the soldiers
embark upon.
Achievement
In Sound Editing
Ford
v Ferrari | Donald
Sylvester
Joker | Alan Robert Murray
1917
| Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Wylie Stateman
Star
Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
| Matthew Wood and David Acord
Ford
v Ferrari could win
this, but I think 1917 will win for
its outstanding audio experience, which was essential to the film’s impact in
the long stretches of runtime without any dialogue.
Achievement
In Sound Mixing
Ad
Astra | Gary
Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
Ford
v Ferrari | Paul Massey,
David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
Joker | Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and
Tod Maitland
1917
| Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Once
upon a Time...in Hollywood
| Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
An absolute triumph in music
and effects, 1917 will win this one
for certain.
Achievement
In Visual Effects
Avengers:
Endgame | Dan DeLeeuw,
Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
The
Irishman | Pablo
Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
The
Lion King | Robert
Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
1917
| Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
Star
Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
| Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy
The Academy tends to favor the
re-creation of something real using visual effects, rather than the creation of
something in the purely imaginative realm of science fiction or fantastical. This
one is between The Lion King and 1917. I think the more ‘realistic’ of
the two will take this home.
Best
International Feature Film
Corpus
Christi | Poland
Honeyland | North Macedonia
Les
Misérables | France
Pain
and Glory | Spain
Parasite
| South Korea
If Parasite doesn’t win this, it’ll be the biggest shocker ever,
considering that it has emerged as a strong contender for best picture even.
This is among the most predictable categories this year.
Best
Animated Feature Film
How
to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I
Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing
Link
Toy Story 4
Best
Documentary Feature
American Factory
The
Cave
The
Edge of Democracy
For
Sama
Honeyland
Best
Documentary Short Subject
In
the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a
Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life
Overtakes Me
St.
Louis Superman
Walk
Run Cha-Cha
Best
Animated Short Film
Dcera
(Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
Best
Live Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta
Football Club
The
Neighbors' Window
Saria
A
Sister
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