They call the SAG cast and ensemble awards the 'equivalents' of best picture or best series. However, the results can be dramatically different, because here they consider the actors' performances alone. A comparison between recent years’ winners in these categories and the ‘equivalents’ at the Oscars, Golden Globes or Emmys will make that quite evident. So don’t be surprised if Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood takes home the ‘equivalent’ here, even if it doesn't come close to a best picture Oscar.
Take a look at all predictions, across television and motion pictures for this Sunday’s 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Drama Series
BIG LITTLE LIES—could win
THE CROWN—most likely
GAME OF THRONES
THE HANDMAID’S TALE
This one is difficult to predict. They’ve never given it to GAME OF THRONES, so the GOT cast can win for their swansong. BIG LITTLE LIES is a strong contender. However, I think this will go to the cast of THE CROWN.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, THE MORNING SHOW—could win
Helena Bonham Carter, THE CROWN
Olivia Colman, THE CROWN—most likely
Jodie Comer, KILLING EVE
Elisabeth Moss, THE HANDMAID’S TALE
The SAGs have awarded THE CROWN and KILLING EVE before in this category, though for different actresses. I believe they'll stick with THE CROWN this year. I think it'll be Olivia Colman. Alternatively, it could go to Jennifer Aniston, or Jodie Comer.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, THIS IS US—could win
Steve Carell, THE MORNING SHOW—most likely
Billy Crudup, THE MORNING SHOW
Peter Dinklage, GAME OF THRONES
David Harbour, STRANGER THINGS
Steve Carell is a strong contender here. I suspect he’ll win. If not, the SAGs might make up for their lack of love for THIS IS US this year, by awarding Sterling K. Brown, who hasn’t won in this category before.
Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Comedy Series
THE KOMINSKY METHOD
THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
SCHITT’S CREEK—could win
It’s FLEABAG’s year. Enough said.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Comedy Series
Christina Applegate, DEAD TO ME
Alex Borstein, THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
Rachel Brosnahan, THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
Catherine O’Hara, SCHITT’S CREEK
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, FLEABAG—most likely, will win
Phoebe Waller-Bridge is winning this one. It’s FLEABAG’s year.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, THE KOMINSKY METHOD
Michael Douglas, THE KOMINSKY METHOD
Bill Hader, BARRY—could win
Andrew Scott, FLEABAG—most likely
Tony Shaloub, THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
The SAGs don’t shy away from awarding supporting performances in a category that also includes lead roles. So it would be safe to predict Andrew Scott as the winner here, since it’s FLEABAG’s year. Alternatively, Bill Hader could win.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Television Movie Or Limited Series
Patricia Arquette, THE ACT—could win
Toni Collette, UNVELIEVABLE
Joey King, THE ACT
Emily Watson, CHERNOBYL
Michelle Williams, FOSSE/VERDON—most likely
Michelle Williams is most likely to win. But considering Patricia Arquette’s Golden Globe win, it could be hers.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Television Movie Or Limited Series
Mahershala Ali, TRUE DETECTIVE
Russell Crowe, THE LOUDEST VOICE—could win
Jared Harris, CHERNOBYL
Jharrel Jerome, WHEN THEY SEE US—most likely
Sam Rockwell, FOSSE/VERDON
After Russell Crowe’s Golden Globe win, this one is hard to predict. However, I think Jharrel Jerome will win here. Alternatively, Jared Harris or Crowe could take it home.
Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture
The Irishman—could win
Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood—most likely
This is where the SAG most understandably goes a direction quite different than that of the Golden Globes or eventually the Oscars. Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood will most likely lose out at the Oscars, but the enormous cast and the picture’s popularity will push it forward for the SAG. After Black Panther’s win last year, this far more deserving (potential) win should be far from surprising.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell—could win
Renée Zellweger, Judy—most likely
The SAG has often gone in a different direction with lead actress even, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Charlize Theron or even Scarlett Johansson take this home, instead of awards season favorite, Zellweger.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker—most likely, will win
I think this is the most predictable category across all major awards this awards season. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Joaquin Phoenix will win here.
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role
Laura Dern, Marriage Story—most likely
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers—could win
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Again, the SAG has been known to appreciate lighter fare more than the other awards do, especially since they don’t have separate comedy categories. So if Jennifer Lopez wins, it won’t be a shock. Though Laura Dern is still a favorite.
Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman—could win
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood—most likely
Brad Pitt is the favorite in this category for sure. However, if the SAGs decide to go all SAG about this, they could give it to Al Pacino.