Will
La La Land make a clean sweep at the
Oscars this Sunday? I think it’ll win 9. Here are my predictions for the 89th Oscars—who
should win and who will win
Best
Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw
Ridge
Hell
Or High Water
Hidden
Figures
La
La Land
Lion
Manchester
By The Sea
Moonlight
Should
And Will Win: In an interesting
race for best picture, it seems quite clear that this is going to be La La Land’s year. Some say that the
overwhelming recognition that the contemporary original musical has been
receiving at all the guild awards, the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, will take
away from its chances at the grand finale of this awards season. However, I
think La La Land is far from the
fatigue level that the above awards experts are suggesting.
If a
film comes close, it’ll be Moonlight.
I just hope that Manchester… doesn’t become the upset here. The film is good
and incredibly moving, but I don’t think it’s best picture material at all. All
things considered, La La Land is the standout this year, and I do believe that
it will become the first out-and-out musical to win best picture since 2002’s Chicago.
Actor
In A Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Should
And Will Win: Casey
Affleck’s turn as a guilt-ridden man, who has little to live for and is
presented with the challenge of being his nephew’s legal guardian after his
brother dies, was silent, yet incredibly strong. It was a role that could have
easily gone over-the-top, but with director Kenneth Lonergan’s fine guidance,
Affleck managed to deliver a performance that reflected pain, heartbreak,
defeat, with incredible restraint. The quiet persona he helped build is all that
made the film what it was.
The upset here could be Denzel Washington, who won the
SAG Award. Considering that a lot of the SAG-AFTRA members are also Academy
members, this is a possibility. If it does happen, Washington will join the
likes of Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson, who have each won three Oscars
for acting.
Actress
In A Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Should
Win And Will Win:
Emma Stone has been one to look out for, for years. And this year, with the
vulnerability she brought to Mia in La La Land, it ought to be her. The
struggle and self-doubt of a dreamer and girl in love was presented in a raw
and beautiful way, with her delicate and refined delivery.
Isabelle Hupert, who won the Globe for lead actress,
drama, could be the upset here, making her the first performer to win an acting
Oscar for a foreign language film, since Marion Cotillard won for La Vie En Rose (2007).
Actor
In A Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Should
Win: With Lion, Dev Patel has come of age. He took
on a challenging role that has so much of him just being in his own head and
unraveling, without much to say or a lot to do. He conveyed with conviction the
frustration of not being able to find his original family, and the depth of
what it meant to him to do so. I think if delivering a breakout splendid
performance means anything, Patel should win this one.
Will
Win: This one is
Mahershala Ali’s to lose. He’s won all the big awards in this category, and giving
it to him will be one way to recognize Moonlight,
a brilliant movie, which won’t win too many Oscars on Sunday. The odds are in
his favor even though his performance wasn’t exemplary. It was good and
sufficient, but it was the bare minimum I would expect from a role like his.
Actress
In A Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Should
And Will Win: This
will probably be the first category that’ll be announced on Sunday, and Viola
Davis could win this thing simply for her delivery in the clip that they’ll
show when announcing the nominees. The clip will be the one where Rose is
yelling at Troy, releasing years of frustration, after the heartbreak of
finding out how simple it was for Troy to be unfaithful and even justify it to
himself. This is Viola’s year, and when she does win, she’ll join the elite
group of the ‘Triple Crown Of Acting’ (comprising performers who have won an Oscar,
an Emmy as well as a Tony). It will also put her one step away from becoming an
EGOT (Emmy-Grammy-Oscar-and-Tony winner).
Directing
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should
And Will Win: This is
a strong group of contenders. And while Barry Jenkins’ breakthrough Moonlight could win, I strongly believe
this year is Damien Chazelle’s. His perfection of conveying a simple theme beautifully
and effectively, in Technicolor splendor, and successfully presenting a
marvelous contemporary musical, is going to be rewarded. He will also become
the youngest person ever to win an Oscar for directing.
Writing
(Adapted Screenplay)
Arrival, Screenplay by Eric Heisserer
Fences, Screenplay by August Wilson
Hidden
Figures, Screenplay
by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion, Screenplay by Luke Davies
Moonlight, Screenplay by Barry Jenkins; Story
by Tarell Alvin McCraney
Should
Win And Will Win: Moonlight will make history by becoming
the first ever film to win an adapted screenplay Oscar while having won for
original screenplay at the WGA Awards. This is owing to the fact that the
Academy deemed it to have been inspired by some source material, hence putting
it in adapted screenplay. This will be upsetting for Arrival and Lion, both of
which would be the next best contenders to win this. Moonlight is the second most likely film to win best picture, after
La La Land, and this win will be as
close as Moonlight will get.
Writing
(Original Screenplay)
Hell
Or High Water, Written
by Taylor Sheridan
La
La Land, Written by
Damien Chazelle
The
Lobster, Written by Yorgos
Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
Manchester
By The Sea, Written
by Kenneth Lonergan
20th
Century Women, Written
by Mike Mills
Should
Win: La La Land is a wonderful story, with nuanced
and flawed characters, and doesn’t end in a predictable way. It speaks to
people in a familiar way, and shows perspectives of relationships and destiny
that are rarely seen. I think it’s a breakthrough in storytelling, in a lot of
ways, which is why it should win. However, since it’s winning best picture, I
think this will go to…
Will
Win: …Manchester By The Sea. It’s the closest
contender after La La Land and
Moonlight, so I think this win will be in lieu of a best picture Oscar.
Cinematography
Arrival, Bradford Young
La
La Land, Linus
Sandgren
Lion, Greig Fraser
Moonlight, James Laxton
Silence, Rodrigo Prieto
Should
And Will Win: Capturing
the colors of the California sky, framing the long and tight shots as
appropriately as required for the narrative, the filmography of the musical
numbers and the presentation of the ‘La La Land’ will win. Moonlight’s intrusive and disturbing camera work could win, and it
even comes close to really deserving this. However, I think this category will
be a part of La La Land’s sweep this
Sunday.
Production
Design
Arrival, Production Design: Patrice Vermette;
Set Decoration: Paul Hotte
Fantastic
Beasts And Where To Find Them,
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Hail,
Caesar!, Production
Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
La
La Land, Production
Design: David Wasco; Set Decoration: Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
Passengers, Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas;
Set Decoration: Gene Serdena
Should
And Will Win: La La Land’s sweep will continue. Arrival could be the upset, but I doubt
it.
Visual
Effects
Deepwater
Horizon, Craig
Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton
Doctor
Strange, Stephane
Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli and Paul Corbould
The
Jungle Book, Robert
Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon
Kubo
And The Two Strings, Steve
Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean and Brad Schiff
Rogue
One: A Star Wars Story,
John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel and Neil Corbould
Should
And Will Win: The Jungle Book did wonders. Its visual effects were
practically the entire film. There couldn’t be any film more deserving.
Film
Editing
Arrival, Joe Walker
Hacksaw
Ridge, John Gilbert
Hell
Or High Water, Jake
Roberts
La
La Land, Tom Cross
Moonlight, Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon
Should
Win: If Hacksaw Ridge wins anything, it should win
this one. The snappy editing through the battle sequences drove its
edge-of-seat moments. The editing was totally in-sync with the direction, and editing
became one of the most crucial parts of this movie.
Will
Win: Perhaps for
flawlessly stitching together the opening number like a one-shot performance,
perhaps for matching the musical storytelling, and perhaps for handpicking the
best-looking shots for each scene, La La
Land will win. I hope Hacksaw upsets
this.
Sound
Editing
Arrival, Sylvain Bellemare
Deepwater
Horizon, Wylie
Stateman and Renée Tondelli
Hacksaw
Ridge, Robert
Mackenzie and Andy Wright
La
La Land, Ai-Ling Lee
and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Sully, Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
Should Win: Arrival, for creating original, yet
strangely ‘realistic’ sounds of the alien life in the film
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge, for the intense battleground sound effects
Sound
Mixing
Arrival, Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La
Haye
Hacksaw
Ridge, Kevin
O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace
La
La Land, Andy Nelson,
Ai-Ling Lee and Steve A. Morrow
Rogue
One: A Star Wars Story,
David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
13
Hours: The Secret Soldiers Of Benghazi,
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Mac Ruth
Should
Win: The result of Hacksaw Ridge’s sound mixing formed the
gripping backdrop of the battle sequences, which are largely without dialogue. The
sound editing was instrumental in putting those scenes together.
Will
Win: La La Land, for the flawless coming
together of music and effects
Music
(Original Score)
Jackie, Mica Levi
La
La Land, Justin
Hurwitz
Lion, Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka
Moonlight, Nicholas Britell
Passengers, Thomas Newman
Should
And Will Win: Even
if, by some slim chance, La La Land
doesn’t win anything else, it will win definitely the Oscars for original score
and song.
Music
(Original Song)
‘Audition (The Fools Who
Dream)’ from La La Land; Music by
Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
‘Can't Stop The Feeling’
from Trolls; Music and Lyric by
Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
‘City Of Stars’ from La La Land; Music by Justin Hurwitz;
Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
‘The Empty Chair’ from Jim: The James Foley Story; Music and
Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
‘How Far I'll Go’ from Moana; Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel
Miranda
Should
And Will Win: Same as
above! This one will go to ‘City Of Stars’. I don’t think anyone expects otherwise.
Allied, Joanna Johnston
Fantastic
Beasts And Where To Find Them,
Colleen Atwood
Florence
Foster Jenkins, Consolata
Boyle
Jackie, Madeline Fontaine
La
La Land, Mary Zophres
Should
Win: This is a tricky
category. The costumes in each of the above movies do their job. I would
probably like to see this one going to Fantastic
Beasts, for excellence in original design. Allied would be a close second for me.
Will
Win: I think Jackie will take this one, for
successfully replicating the style of one of America’s biggest fashion icons of
all time. As with Florence Foster Jenkins,
as well as Jackie, the factor or
recreation or replication is what makes me think it shouldn’t be either. There
is a chance that La La Land could
take this one as well, for its simple, yet effective costumes. However, I think
it’ll be Jackie, even if it’s just
for recreating the former first lady’s pink skirt-suit.
Makeup
And Hairstyling
A
Man Called Ove, Eva
von Bahr and Love Larson
Star
Trek Beyond, Joel
Harlow and Richard Alonzo
Suicide
Squad, Alessandro
Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson
Should
And Will Win: Star Trek Beyond for its brilliant
prosthetic and special effect make-up
OTHER
PREDICTIONS:
Animated
Feature Film
Kubo
And The Two Strings
Moana
My
Life As A Zucchini
The
Red Turtle
Zootopia
Documentary
(Feature)
Fire
at sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life,
Animated
O.J.:
Made In America
13th
Documentary
(Short Subject)
Extremis
4.1
Miles
Joe's
Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The
White Helmets
Foreign
Language Film
Land Of Mine
(Denmark)
A
Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The
Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni
Erdmann (Germany)
Short
Film (Animated)
Blind
Vaysha
Borrowed
Time
Pear
Cider And Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Short
Film (Live Action)
Ennemis
Intérieurs
La
Femme Et Le TGV
Silent
Nights
Sing
Timecode
That is a matter of the time that we will know about the winners of the awards. By the way your predictions are really close and I think they might win the awards.
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