THE 2016 SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS – PREDICTIONS

Before the winners of the 22nd annual Screen Actors Guild Awards are announced, let’s take a look at the nominees, as I take a stab at guessing who’ll win

The cast of Spotlight

The SAGs are always a bit of a surprise, with unlikely nominees taking home Actors year after year. It often happens that the frontrunners that don’t end up winning the Oscar will have already won the Actor. That’s a little disappointing for the Actor winners, in a way. But what’s more disappointing are the TV categories. I say it almost every year, and I’ll say it again. The combined acting categories—lead and supporting—limit the recognition of some brilliant performances. I would say that instead of segregating drama and comedy, they should segregate lead and supporting. That should really make things interesting, because no major TV awards every put drama and comedy together. Anyway, for now, this is what we’ve got…

Jon Hamm in the series finale of MAD MEN

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

DOWNTON ABBEY

GAME OF THRONES

HOMELAND

HOUSE OF CARDS

MAD MEN**

GAME OF THRONES could win. It was recognized at the Emmys, but not at the Globes, so its chances aren’t as strong. The SAG-AFTRA loves MAD MEN and DOWNTON, so it could be either of them. However, this is MAD MEN’s last year, so I think they’ll give it to MAD MEN. (DOWNTON’s penultimate season is being considered this year, since its last season is currently on the air in the US.)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

THE BIG BANG THEORY

KEY & PEELE

MODERN FAMILY

ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK**

TRANSPARENT

VEEP

VEEP should win in my opinion, but I doubt it will. MODERN FAMILY’s cast is equally deserving, but their award-winning days seem to be over. They could give it to TRANSPARENT, but I think it’ll be ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK again.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

Peter Dinklage, GAME OF THRONES

Jon Hamm, MAD MEN**

Rami Malek, MR. ROBOT

Bob Odenkirk, BETTER CALL SAUL

Kevin Spacey, HOUSE OF CARDS

Kevin Spacey could win again, but the awards love for Jon Hamm since MAD MEN ended has been quite abundant, and I think he’ll finally win an Actor for his amazing and meticulous performance as Don Draper.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, HOMELAND

Viola Davis, HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER**

Julianna Margulies, THE GOOD WIFE

Maggie Smith, DOWNTON ABBEY

Robin Wright, HOUSE OF CARDS

It’ll be Viola Davis again, I’m quite sure. Because I think the SAG-AFTRA is done giving awards to Julianna Margulies, Maggie Smith and Claire Danes.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Ty Burrell, MODERN FAMILY

Louis C.K., LOUIE

William H. Macy, SHAMELESS

Jim Parsons, THE BIG BANG THEORY

Jeffrey Tambor, TRANSPARENT**

Jim Parsons has never won in this category, so I think it should be him. They could give it to Bill Macy a second time, but I think, like Ty Burrell, he’ll end up being a one-time winner, because this year, I suspect they’ll give it to Jeffrey Tambor.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Uzo Aduba, ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK**

Edie Falco, NURSE JACKIE

Ellie Kemper, UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, VEEP

Amy Poehler, PARKS AND RECREATION

Julia Louis-Dreyfus should win. Maybe even Amy Poehler (this is probably literally the last time she’ll be nominated for PARKS…) should take it away, but Louis-Dreyfus stands a better chance. However, I think Uzo Aduba will take it away this year again. The SAG-AFTRA loves to repeatedly and consecutively award novel performances.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

Idris Elba, LUTHER

Ben Kingsley, TUT

Ray Liotta, TEXAS RISING

Bill Murray, A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS

Mark Rylance, WOLF HALL**

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

Nicole Kidman, GRACE OF MONACO**

Queen Latifah, BESSIE

Christina Ricci, THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES

Susan Sarandon, THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE

Kristen Wiig, THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Spotlight**

Straight Outta Compton

Trumbo

This is a tough one. I think I’m going go with Spotlight. But I’m quite sure that this won’t be one of the years when the best picture Oscar goes to the picture that won in this category at the SAGs.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant**

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

This is Leo’s year. I doubt there are many who think anyone else will win.

Jacob Tremblay and Brie Larson in Room

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room**

Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Brie Larson was quite good. She managed to convey gut-wrenching emotions and frustration without overdoing it, so I think she’ll win. Saoirse Ronan could also be the winner, in which case, Larson will definitely win the Oscar.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Jacob Tremblay, Room**

I’m not too convinced about my guess here, but the boy was brilliant in Room, and if the SAG-AFTRA has recognized his work, they might go all out. It could be Mark Rylance, it could be Idis Elba.

Alicia Vicander in The Danish Girl

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl**

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Alicia Vikander’s was an outstanding performance, with a perfectly delivered mix of intensity and restraint, and she might lose to Kate Winslet at the Oscars, but I think she will win at the SAGs. Vikander really should have been in the leading actress category.