OSCARS 2015: WHO WILL WIN – PREDICTIONS

I’ve already identified who should win the Oscars for Best Picture and for all the acting categories; now, let’s take a stab at who’ll actually win this Sunday. Here are predictions for the 87th Oscars…

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) CORRECT

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory Of Everything

Whiplash

In recent years, there have been those when the Oscar winner for Best Picture was almost a done deal, when there was only a second option that could upset the most obvious winner. Avatar was the second when The Hurt Locker won. The Social Network was the second when The King’s Speech won. The Descendants was the second when The Artist won. Argo could have lost out to Lincoln, and 12 Years A Slave to Gravity. This year, however, the odds of Boyhood or Birdman winning are almost 50-50. Boyhood won the Golden Globe for Best Picture – drama, while Birdman won the SAG ensemble and the Producers Guild Of America Award (PGAs) for Best Picture. In the last 17 years, more PGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture Oscars than have the Golden Globe Best Picture winners or the SAG ensemble winners. This year, the PGA named Birdman Best Picture. Additionally, the Directors Guild Of America Awards (DGAs) for directing have been more in-sync with the Oscar Best Picture winners than even the PGAs. This year, the DGA went to Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman.

It’s not unusual for the Academy to award unconventional and novel films as their Best Picture, like 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, or 2011’s The Artist, so it wouldn’t be so far off for one to think that they’ll actually give it to Boyhood this year. However, Birdman is just as novel as Boyhood is, especially considering the kind of films that generally win Best Picture—such as No Country For Old Men, The King’s Speech, 12 Years A Slave. Therefore, this year, despite Boyhood’s novelty and experimental charm, I think it’ll be Birdman taking home the big prize, considering the track record that the Academy has vis-à-vis the big prizes of the other awards.

DIRECTING

Alejandro G Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) CORRECT

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

There’s a good chance that Boyhood might win for directing while it loses Best Picture, to Birdman. It could also be the other way around, with Alejandro González Iñárritu winning for directing while Boyhood wins Best Picture. However, majority of Best Picture winners also win the Oscar for directing, and I think Birdman will fall into that majority this year. The perfectly executed screenplay of Birdman and that he could help Keaton, Stone and Norton earn nominations are going to earn him this Oscar.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory Of Everything

Julianne Moore, Still Alice CORRECT

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

The performances by these lead actresses are all good—relatively quiet, controlled, perfectly restrained—but Julianne Moore takes that restraint further back for those blank moments of hers in Still Alice, and the effective outcome of her overall performance is bound to be recognized.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory Of Everything CORRECT

Cumberbatch, Keaton or Redmayne—it could be any of these guys. However even though this year, the result isn’t as much of a ‘done deal’ as was the case with Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln or Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, I think the Academy will reward what I think was the best performance of the year, across all acting categories—Eddie Redmayne’s.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood CORRECT

Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep, Into The Woods

Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Patricia Arquette will win it for the consistency she’s shown over the 12 years of playing the character. Although I personally think Knightley should win.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

JK Simmons, Whiplash CORRECT

There’s no competition for, and no doubt about Simmons winning this year.

WRITING – ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr & Armando Bo

Boyhood, written by Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher,  written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman

The Grand Budapest Hotel, screenplay by Wes Anderson; story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler, written by Dan Gilroy

Screenplay awards are often like consolation prizes to exemplary films that everyone knows won’t win Best Picture. It could go on to win Best Picture too, but this year, with the odds not entirely in any one film’s favor, I think the consolation prize will come into play for those that won’t win the big prize. This, however, I think will go to The Grand Budapest Hotel, for its dynamic and engaging narrative and character constructs.

WRITING – ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper, written by Jason Hall

The Imitation Game, written by Graham Moore CORRECT

Inherent Vice, written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

The Theory of Everything, screenplay by Anthony McCarten

Whiplash, written by Damien Chazelle

The Imitation Game is winning this one, since it won’t be winning Best Picture, even though it probably should.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) CORRECT

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Ida

Mr Turner

Unbroken

Birdman! Cinematography was the MO of the narrative, taking it forward, quite literally even, and executing what was so effective that it might have gone unnoticed and instead, simply absorbed subconsciously, making for viewing pleasure.

FILM EDITING

American Sniper

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Whiplash

The snappy editing in the climax of Whiplash, and actually consistently throughout the film makes me hope that it wins this award. Boyhood’s editing does tie up pieces shot over 12 years into one 150-minute film, for that Boyhood could come close, but I don’t think it will. American Sniper is the one to beat for battle scene edits that were precisely on the mark.

SOUND EDITING

American Sniper CORRECT

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Interstellar

Unbroken

The sound awards could both go to American Sniper or Interstellar; however, I think this year, I think they’ll be split. American Sniper will take out this one.

SOUND MIXING

American Sniper

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Interstellar

Unbroken

Whiplash CORRECT

When music is key, the Academy hears the sound, and that’s why I think Whiplash will be this year’s winner for achievement in sound mixing.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Guardians of the Galaxy

Interstellar CORRECT

X-Men: Days of Future Past

For everything Christopher Nolan’s twisted futuristic drama will lose out on, this one’s pretty much locked for Interstellar. It may not have become this year’s Gravity, by turning into a frontrunner for a Best Picture nomination, but in visual effects, there’s no doubt of its win.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel CORRECT

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Into The Woods

Mr Turner

Interstellar could be this year’s Avatar—winning production design for mostly computer-generated imagery. However, I think the Academy will go with the vastly imaginative and resplendent art direction of The Grand Budapest Hotel.

COSTUME DESIGN

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr Turner

This one’s Mr Turner’s, for the Academy’s love for everything old and European in visual appeal and historical flair.

MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel CORRECT

Guardians Of The Galaxy

This is where all the major character transformations have been rewarded for their excellence. Traditionally, it should go to Foxcatcher for making Steve Carell unrecognizable, but then even Tilda Swinton looks like a different human being in The Grand Budapest Hotel, and there’s a lot more of that in Budapest than in Foxcatcher. 

MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE

The Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat CORRECT

The Imitation Game, Alexandre Desplat

Interstellar, Hans Zimmer

Mr Turner, Gary Yershon

The Theory of Everything, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Jóhann Jóhannsson won the Golden Globe, and the Academy could go traditional, but I suspect that they’ll award the quirky brilliance of The Grand Budapest Hotel’s vibrant score by Alexandre Desplat.

MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG

“Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie

“Glory” from Selma CORRECT

“Grateful” from Beyond the Lights

 “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

 “Lost Stars” from Begin Again

The song won the Golden Globe, it’s popular, it’s the voice of a film that can’t be recognized in any other category, so “Glory” it will be.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Song of the Sea

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

The Lego Movie was not nominated. Boo-hoo! Now let’s move on and recognize the amazing How To Train Your Dragon sequel—a very well written film, and beautifully executed in every way.