Saturday, January 09, 2016

GOLDEN GLOBES 2016 – PREDICTIONS

With Ricky Gervais back as host, the show’s sure to be interesting. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler were good, for sure, but I think a change this year will be good. I’m looking forward to it, as much as I am to finding out how the HFPA will surprise us this year.
  
If there’s one thing we’ve learnt about the Golden Globe Awards in the last few years, it’s that things can be quite unpredictable, especially in television. With shows such as BROOKLYN NINE-NINE and THE AFFAIR taking away the big prizes one year, and then being left out of the race completely the next, is a clear indication that newness is rewarded. Gone are the days when popular favorites would walk away with gold year after year. So let’s dive into the categories and weigh the possibilities. We’ll start with the TV nominees.

Best Television Series – Drama
EMPIRE (Fox)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
MR. ROBOT (USA)
NARCOS (Netflix)
OUTLANDER (Starz)

Will GAME OF THRONES finally win, like it did at the Emmys last September? It’s possible, but I think the HFPA will prove to be particularly unpredictable with this category. It could be last year’s breakout hit EMPIRE, or it could be MR. ROBOT, one of last year’s most spoken about new shows. I’m putting my money on MR. ROBOT.

Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical
CASUAL (Hulu)
MOZART IN THE JUNGLE (Amazon)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
SILICON VALLEY (HBO)
TRANSPARENT (Amazon)
VEEP (HBO)

VEEP has never won, and interestingly, the show has never even been nominated in this category before. That could mean that they’ll finally recognize its excellent approach to comedy. And I think that’s what’s going to happen.

Best Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
AMERICAN CRIME (ABC)
AMERICAN HORROR STORY: HOTEL (FX)
FARGO (FX)
FLESH AND BONE (Starz)
WOLF HALL (BBC)

I think FARGO will win again.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Kirsten Dunst, FARGO
Lady Gaga, AMERICA HORROR STORY: HOTEL
Sarah Hay, FLESH AND BONE
Felicity Huffman, AMERICAN CRIME
Queen Latifah, BESSIE

They could give it to Lady Gaga for her highly spoken-about role, but the HFPA hasn’t been all that generous to AMERICAN HORROR STORY in the past, even the times when Jessica Lange was a nominee. On the other hand, Kirsten Dunst was unpredictably brilliant in FARGO, so I really think she should win, and something tells me she will.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Idris Elba, LUTHER
Oscar Isaac, SHOW ME A HERO
David Oyelowo, NIGHTINGALE
Mark Rylance, WOLF HALL
Patrick Wilson, FARGO

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama
Caitriona Balfe, OUTLANDER
Viola Davis, HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER
Eva Green, PENNY DREADFUL
Taraji P. Henson, EMPIRE
Robin Wright, HOUSE OF CARDS

Viola Davis would be a popular choice for this one, but since they didn’t acknowledge her last year, I don’t think it’ll happen this year either. On the other hand, the HFPA has been quite generous with recognizing EMPIRE, so I think they’ll go in that direction in this category.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama
Jon Hamm, MAD MEN
Rami Malek, MR. ROBOT
Wagner Moura, NARCOS
Bob Odenkirk, BETTER CALL SAUL
Liev Schreiber, RAY DONOVAN

They could give it to Jon Hamm, but the HFPA have recognized his performance on MAD MEN before, so they might not feel the need to do so again, even if this is the last time he’ll have been nominated for the role. I think Bob Odenkirk should win, but I suspect they’ll go with Rami Malek.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Rachel Bloom, CRAZY EX-GIRLFRIEND
Jamie Lee Curtis, SCREAM QUEENS
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, VEEP
Gina Rodriguez, JANE THE VIRGIN
Lily Tomlin, GRACE AND FRANKIE

They should give it to Julia Louis-Dreyfus, especially since they’ve never acknowledged her brilliance on VEEP. However, I think they’ll go with Rachel Bloom, for her quirky, crazy performance as the titular ex-girlfriend.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Aziz Ansari, MASTER OF NONE
Gael Garcia Bernal, MOZART IN THE JUNGLE
Rob Lowe, THE GRINDER
Patrick Stewart, BLUNT TALK
Jeffrey Tambor, TRANSPARENT

Jeffrey Tambor could win again, but considering the HFPA’s penchant for rewarding newness in terms of quality and theme, I don’t think they’d let Aziz Ansari’s endearing performance in MASTER OF NONE go unrecognized.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Uzo Aduba, ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
Joanne Froggatt, DOWNTON ABBEY
Regina King, AMERICAN CRIME
Judith Light, TRANSPARENT
Maura Tierney, THE AFFAIR

Aduba’s the popular favorite, and I think in this category, the popular favorite will win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan Cumming, THE GOOD WIFE
Damian Lewis, WOLF HALL
Ben Mendelsohn, BLOODLINE
Tobias Menzies, OUTLANDER
Christian Slater, MR. ROBOT

Every year the HFPA goes in a different direction, and miniseries/TV movies are definitely not sidelined. This year though, I think they’ll give it to Ben Mendelsohn. His effective performance as the black sheep of the family will be recognized. Another possibility is Damian Lewis.


And here’s a quick look at the movie nominations, and my predictions:

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Director - Motion Picture
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue, Room
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer, Spotlight
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay, The Big Short
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Animated Feature Film
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Foreign-Language Film
The Brand New Testament (Belgium/France/Luxembourg)
The Club (Chile)
The Fencer (Finland/Germany/Estonia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Carter Burwell, Carol
Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs
Ryuichi Sakamoto, Alva Noto, The Revenant

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
"Love me Like You Do" – Fifty Shades of Grey, written by Max Martin, Savan Kotecha, Ali Payami, Ilya Salmanzadeh
"One Kind of Love" – Love & Mercy, written by Brian Wilson, Scott Bennett
"See You Again" – Furious 7, written by Justin Franks, Andrew Cedar, Charlie Puth, Cameron Thomaz
"Simple Song #3" – Youth, written by David Lang
"Writing’s on the Wall" – Spectre, written by Sam Smith, Jimmy Napes

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