Sunday, January 25, 2015

THE 21st SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS – PREDICTIONS

To actors, by actors and for acting—tonight’s the night that begins with actors sharing anecdotes from their journeys in the profession, as the community of actors come together to recognize the best of their peers’ work over the last one year. Let’s take a look at the nominations and take a swing at what might go down tonight…

The cast of Birdman stand a good chance at winning the award for best ensemble in a motion picture

Among the film categories, it’s safe to say that Birdman is winning ensemble cast. The film’s actors have collectively been nominated for more awards than the actors of any other film this year. And it’s gems like The Help that can win at this ‘best picture equivalent’, even though they might not be a frontrunner for the big prize at the Oscars or Globes.

Patricia Arquette, Eddie Redmayne and JK Simmons
Other winners of the evening will be Eddie Redmayne for The Theory Of Everything, Julianne Moore for Still Alice and Patricia Arquette for Boyhood—all of whom have emerged as award season favorites this year. Male actor in a supporting role could go to JK Simmons (Whiplash), who won the Globe. But I don’t think that that’s as much of a given as the above three. I hope the SAG-AFTRA can surprise us though with the results, by say, giving awards to Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) and Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) maybe.


And here are the predictions for television:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
BOARDWALK EMPIRE
DOWNTON ABBEY
GAME OF THRONES
HOMELAND
HOUSE OF CARDS

The SAG-AFTRA love BOARDWALK EMPIRE, having given its cast Actors for best ensemble twice before. So even though the show hasn’t won for the last two years, this is the last year it’s getting nominated, so I think they will walk away with it this year; like BREAKING BAD did last year. A pleasant surprise would be to see DOWNTON ABBEY, 2013’s winners, winning this year again.   

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
THE BIG BANG THEORY
BROOKLYN NINE-NINE
MODERN FAMILY
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
VEEP

This one’s a no-brainer. The cast of MODERN FAMILY have won at this category for four years, and I don’t see that changing. The SAG-AFTRA definitely recognize consistently good performances more than the HFPA even. An upset could be ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK, but I doubt they’ll win.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Steve Buscemi, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
Peter Dinklage, GAME OF THRONES
Woody Harrelson, TRUE DETECTIVE
Matthew McConaughey, TRUE DETECTIVE
Kevin Spacey, HOUSE OF CARDS

Matthew McConaughey’s been a frontrunner for every award show since the first season of TRUE DETECTIVE. However, he lost out at the Emmys and the Golden Globes, so for the SAGs, I wouldn’t assume that he’ll win. He does stand a strong chance, but I’m going to go with Steve Buscemi on this one.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Claire Danes, HOMELAND
Viola Davis, HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER
Julianna Margulies, THE GOOD WIFE
Tatiana Maslany, ORPHAN BLACK
Maggie Smith, DOWNTON ABBEY
Robin Wright, HOUSE OF CARDS

Margulies has won twice already, Danes has won once, so has Maggie Smith. It could be any of these three this year, but I suspect it’s going to be Maggie Smith. Julianna Margulies would be more deserving, but I doubt the SAG-AFTRA will go back to her. Robin Wright could be a surprise winner.  

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Ty Burrell, MODERN FAMILY
Louis C.K., LOUIE
William H. Macy, SHAMELESS
Jim Parsons, THE BIG BANG THEORY
Eric Stonestreet, MODERN FAMILY

Ty Burrell could be a repeat recipient, after winning last year (Alec Baldwin won for four consecutive years before that, for 30 ROCK). So I think I’m going to go with Burrell. The pleasant surprise here would be Jim Parsons.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Uzo Aduba, ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK
Julie Bowen, MODERN FAMILY
Edie Falco, NURSE JACKIE
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, VEEP
Amy Poehler, PARKS AND RECREATION

Amy Poehler should get her due, but I think the SAG-AFTRA will latch on further to last year’s winner, the awards-favorite Julia Louis-Dreyfus, by giving the Actor to her again this time.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Adrien Brody, HOUDINI
Mark Ruffalo, THE NORMAL HEART
Benedict Cumberbatch, SHERLOCK
Richard Jenkins, OLIVE KITTERIDGE
Billy Bob Thornton, FARGO

This is quite an unpredictable category. I think it’ll be between Benedict Cumberbatch and Billy Bob Thornton. I’m putting my money on Cumberbatch.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Ellen Burstyn, FLOWERS IN THE ATTIC
Maggie Gyllenhaal, THE HONORABLE WOMAN
Frances McDormand, OLIVE KITTERIDGE
Julia Roberts, THE NORMAL HEART
Cicely Tyson, THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL

I want Julia Roberts to win this one, but I think it’ll be Golden Globe winner Maggie Gyllenhaal.

OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
24: LIVE ANOTHER DAY
BOARDWALK EMPIRE
GAME OF THRONES
HOMELAND
SONS OF ANARCHY
THE WALKING DEAD

GAME OF THRONES will win its fourth Actor for its stunt ensemble.



Who are your favorite actors for Actors at the SAGs this year?

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